There has already been so much good writing and forecasting on what 2026 may hold for civil society and philanthropy. I’ve loved taking time to read some throughout January and have tried to summarise common themes and shared ideas.
The global development and philanthropic sectors are currently navigating a perfect storm of escalating conflict, loss of legitimacy and a “funding crisis” triggered by budget cuts from major Western donors. As post-war, rules-based multilateralism and donor-led development falters, calling into question the purpose and accountability of development and philanthropy, the sector must decide: will civil society continue business as usual, albeit with fewer resources in a shrinking civic space, or will these polycrises spur radical change and present opportunities for nascent paradigms to take root?
A Shadow of the Future
Impact Works recently shared their thinking around possible future scenarios for global civil society. In a “Fortress World,” aid becomes inward-looking, used as a tool for nationalist goals like migration deterrence, the Sustainable Development Goals marginalised as multilateralism weakens. In a “World in Flux,” social protection systems are structurally flawed and unaccountable due to chronic instability and resource crises. In the “World Bought by Big Tech,” Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital solutions become tools for data collection, financial gain, and societal control, exacerbating accountability gaps and the erosion of public trust. We need to act with boldness and imagination to ensure to navigate away from these and towards a more promising future.
The Path to Positive Transformation
A conscious path is needed toward “A New World Order”. In this future, global tax reforms and debt agreements enable governments and communities to fully fund their own health and education systems, treating development as a shared responsibility rather than a charitable transaction.
Reaching this future requires critical shifts in philanthropic practice. Five are compiled here from a variety of thinkers who have shared their own conjectures for reaching a positive future (referenced at the end of the article):
1. Harnessing a “Deepseek Effect” for Social Good
Instead of technology used for surveillance and profit, a positive future leverages what Impact Works describe as a potential “Deepseek effect”: majority world companies establish AI models and tools specifically for social good, focusing on community-specific diagnostics and treatments rather than data collection. In this vision, AI is not outsourced but is locally owned and adapted to meet the needs of communities.
Civil society might also capitalise on the increasing desire (and understandable need) to detach and escape for self-preservation. For those with the luxury to do this, technology could provide a space both of respite, and where new movements are forged to push back against powerful systems.
2. Shifting Accountability Toward Communities
The real sector crisis may not be budget cuts, but accountability, whereby a positive future demands a radical shift in power and resources. Current polycrises may catalyse a paradigm shift toward community-centered accountability but we can actively accelerate this transformation by exchanging accountability mechanisms—moving away from those that respond primarily to financial sources and instead centring them on the communities intended to benefit.
3. Moving to Transformational Solidarity
Philanthropy needs to shift its mindset from providing transactional support to fostering genuine transformational solidarity. This calls for a fundamental rethink of how risk and control are managed. Rather than prioritizing efficiency and transaction costs, for example through large intermediaries, funders could prioritize direct investment in locally-led organizations. Moving away from restrictive compliance and control mechanisms, the sector must instead listen to, learn from, and respond to the expertise of those who are closest to the challenges and best positioned to drive meaningful change.
4. Funding the unpopular and the political
Achieving social justice requires courage to invest in causes that are frequently overlooked or considered controversial—such as mental health initiatives or migrants’ rights. The sector must move beyond equating neutrality with safety and should instead back efforts that question entrenched power structures and foster constructive tension, supporting movements and individuals who are building momentum and confronting extremist politics.
5. Investing in the building blocks of the Sector
Finally, systems change cannot be achieved through isolated projects. Philanthropy must invest in the connective tissue of the ecosystem: civil society organisations, infrastructure organisations and intermediaries as convenors, knowledge brokers, relationship builders, learning partners and leadership cultivators, so that movements can grow and civil society organisations can thrive.
Charting a path to a positive future
The current crisis in legitimacy is not an endpoint, but the beginning of a path to our future. Whether disruptive and transformative, or iterative and adaptive, we must choose: continue to manage risk and profit margins in a “fortress” world, or craft a new compact grounded in mutual interest and the messy realities of power and social change.
Sources:
El Doukhi, B. T. (2025) ‘Reclaiming power and partnerships in the wake of donor retraction through South-South partnership’, University of Kent
Mohamud, M. H. (2025) ‘Lack of accountability, not budget cuts, is the real humanitarian crisis’, Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford
OECD (2025) ‘Global scenarios 2035: Exploring implications for the future of global collaboration and the OECD’, OECD Publishing, Paris
Kennedy, E., Maietta, M., Santana, M. (2025) ‘Future of Aid 2040: Pathways to transformation’, Centre for Humanitarian Leadership
Shivji, A., Jackson. M. (2026) ‘2038: Four possible futures for the world, civil society and INGOs’, Impact Works Associates, London
Peace Direct (2023) ‘The nine roles that intermediaries can play in international cooperation’
Mello e Souza, A. (2025) ‘The prospects for international development cooperation in time of geopolitical conflict and resources scarcity’, Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brasilia.
RESPACE Initiative (2024) ‘Respacing global collaboration for peace: scenarios of the future 2024 - 2035’, Conducive Space for Peace
Body, A., Breeze, B. (2025) ‘Rising to the challenge: A study of philanthropic support for ‘unpopular’ causes’, Centre for Philanthropy, University of Kent
Kumar, R. (2026) ‘The old aid model is dead. Now comes the fight over what replaces it’, Devex